Send link
European Atlas on adverse weather for transport
19.12.2011
The Finnish Meteorological Institute together with other four European research institutes has constructed a European atlas on the probabilities and occurrence of adverse weather events for transport. Conceivable impacts of global climate change on the occurrence of these events were also studied.
The EWENT project (Extreme Weather impacts on European Networks of Transport)
funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme
(Transport, Horizontal Activities) has the objective of assessing the impact
of extreme weather on the European transport system. The work is coordinated
by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland.
The intermediate
EWENT study provides the first comprehensive climatology of the adverse and
extreme weather events affecting the European transport system by estimating
the probability of phenomena for the present climate (1971-2000), and also
gives an overview of projected changes in some of these adverse and extreme
phenomena in the future climate up to the 2050s. The following phenomena were
analysed: strong winds; heavy snowfall; blizzards; heavy precipitation; cold
spells; and heat waves. In addition, visibility conditions determined by fog
and dust events, small-scale phenomena affecting transport systems such as
thunderstorms, lightning, large hail and tornadoes, and events that damage the
transport system infrastructure were considered.
Weather and
climate need to be considered to ensure the functioning of a safe, reliable
and sustainable transport system that meets users’ needs for mobility. The
weather and the climate affect all parts of the transport system: physical
structures; controlling/communication systems; vehicles; and both traffic and
infrastructure operations. Adverse weather has negative impacts on transport
through reduced capacity and safety. In the worst cases, adverse weather
results in economic losses and injuries or even fatalities.
Both
negative and positive impacts on the transport sector
There
are large differences in the probabilities and intensity of extremes affecting
transport systems across Europe. Northern Europe and the Alpine region are
impacted most by winter extremes, such as snowfall, cold spells and winter
storms, while the probability of extreme heat waves is highest in Southern
Europe. Extreme winds and blizzards are most common over the Atlantic and
along its coastline. Heavy rainfalls occasionally impact the whole continent.
Visibility conditions indicate a general improvement over the decades studied:
severe fog conditions seem to have a strong declining trend at some of the
main European airports.
The multi-model approach adopted by
the researchers indicates robust changes in temperature extremes. However, the
projections are less coherent with regard to extremes in precipitation and
wind. Both cold extremes and snow events are likely to become rarer by the
2050s. On the other hand, heavy snowfalls are not expected to decrease all
over Europe; instead, the models project a slight increase over Scandinavia.
Extreme heat is likely to intensify across the entire continent, being more
accentuated in the south.
Climate change is expected to have
both negative and positive impacts on the transport sector. A reduction in
cold events would have many positive impacts, reducing disturbances caused,
e.g. by slipperiness, as well as reducing ice at sea and on rivers. On the
other hand, the future increase in the frequency and severity of heat waves
indicates the need to consider the heat tolerance of various transport modes.
The ongoing work packages of the EWENT project will study the impacts and
consequences of the climate changes projected.
The EWENT
project is carried out by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, the
Finnish Meteorological Institute, the German Aerospace Center, via donau
(Austria), the Transport Economics Institute (Norway), the European Severe
Storms Laboratory (Germany), Cyprus Meteorological Institute, Foreca
Consulting Ltd (Finland) and the World Meteorological Organisation. EWENT is
funded by the European Commission through its 7th Framework Programme.
Additional
information:
Dr Heikki Tuomenvirta, EWENT Work Package 2 leader, Finnish Meteorological
Institute, tel. + 358 50 5746824, firstname.surname@fmi.fi
Dr
Pekka Leviäkangas, EWENT Coordinator, VTT Technical Research Centre of
Finland, firstname.surname@vtt.fi, tel. +358 20 722 2058
Results
of the EWENT Work Package 2: Probabilities of adverse weather affecting
transport in Europe: climatology and scenarios up to the 2050s PDF
Website
of the EWENT project