Business from technology

Systems analysis

Competence

VTT analyses risk, uncertainty, and stochastic aspects of complex systems, e.g., nuclear power plants, electric power transmission systems, and communications networks. New analysis methods are also developed in research projects. Systems reliability analysis deals with technological, human, and organisational factors. Operational experience and expert judgements are often combined with mathematical and statistical analysis. We utilise quantitative risk and reliability analysis methods, measurements with data analysis, and advanced stochastic analysis methods. Relevant knowledge of the real system is always necessary, and thus domain experts often participate in the projects.

Challenges

The complexity of mission-critical systems increases in various ways, and finding proper ways to assess dependability is a major objective. In digital systems, the implementation of diverse and complex functions is easier, but the functionality of a system can be altered significantly just by making minor changes in the software or configuration. Assessment of probabilities using expert judgement when no or little statistical data exist, e.g., in the assessment of software or human activity, is an important task. Communication networks of different scales provide challenges for modelling, measuring, and understanding. All of the above aspects need to be taken into account in decision-making under uncertainty or risk.

Solutions

• Quantitative risk and reliability models using event-tree and fault-tree techniques
  
• Bayesian networks for the aggregation of expert judgements and statistical inference
  
• Advanced methods of queuing theory, random graphs, and mathematical statistics necessary for providing adequate analytical insights into complex systems
  
• Classification of systems, structures, and components with respect to risk importance in order to optimise the allocation of resources
  
• Conceptual models to support multidisciplinary expert collaboration in decision-making under uncertainty
  

Benefits

• Identification of weak points in systems
  
• Demonstration of compliance with dependability requirements
  
• Balancing between safety and availability requirements
  
• Optimisation of operational and maintenance costs
  
• Understanding of stochastic phenomena in complex systems
  

References and merits

• One research professor and one adjunct professor (KTH), half of the staff doctors
  
• Memberships in international organisations and participation in international efforts promoting nuclear safety: OECD/NEA/Working groups (Nuclear Energy Agency), IAEA technical committees and missions, ESReDA, ENIQ Task Group on Risk (European Network for Inspection and Qualification), NKS — Nordic nuclear safety research projects, Nordic PSA group (PSA, Probabilistic safety assessment), EU FP7 projects and EU projects to support East European regulatory bodies
  
• Involvement in the development of PSA studies for nuclear power plants in Finland and Sweden as well as review of several Eastern and Western European PSA studies.
  
• Partner in Euro-NF Network of Excellence (Anticipating the Network of the Future - from Theory to Design; 2008-2012)
  
• FinPSA risk and reliability analysis tool for full scope PSA/PRA modelling.